From Antony Green's blog (
Antony Green's Election Blog – Musings on Elections and Politics
):
(Times given are Sydney time)
1:10pm – Unfortunately I have to be elsewhere for 2 hours. In my absence, I expect the ABC Election Computer to give away Warren-Blackwood when it gets a preference count update. The first preferences entered today favour Labor. I expect the Liberal lead in Churchlands to disappear and that Nedlands may be given away as well.
12:25pm – More first preference Absents added for Churchlands and Warren-Blackwood. When the preference count comes in, both will lean Labor’s way. Extra Absents for North West Central also slightly narrow National lead in North West Central
Here is the latest update from Antony Green's blog (
Western Australian Election Updates – Antony Green's Election Blog
):
8:30pm – no late updates. So only the neighbouring Liberal seats of Nedlands and Churchlands remain in doubt, and that these two Liberal heartland seats are in doubt is a sign of the devastation inflicted on the Liberal Party at the 2021 election.
With 68.6% counted in
Nedlands, Labor has extended its lead to 574 votes, Labor’s Katrina Stratton leading sitting Liberal MLA Bill Marmion 51.4% to 48.6%. My computer algorithm is on the cusp of giving the seat away but I might leave it for a little bit more counting on Thursday and let the program give the seat away.
Churchlands is up to 76.2% counted and the lead of Liberal MLA Sean L’Estrange has halved to 31 votes on today’s counting. As expected, Absent votes have favoured Labor and if the trend continues in tomorrow’s counting, Labor’s Christine Tonkin is expected to take the lead.
If Labor wins Churchlands then the new Legislative Assembly will be Labor 53, National 4 and Liberal 2. A Liberal victory would leave Labor on its current tally of 52 seats and give the Liberals 3.
The other seat decided to day was
Warren-Blackwood where the trend on Pre-polls and Absents from yesterday continued today resulting in Labor’s Jane Kelsbie defeat sitting National MLA Terry Redman.
A remarkable feature of today’s count is that Labor’s state-wide first preference vote has passed 60%, reaching 60.2% with 70.8% of votes counted as a percentage of enrolment. My estimated Labor 2-party preferred vote is an extra-ordinary 69.4%, a swing of 13.9%. I would be surprised to find another victory on that scale in WA or any state’s history.
The 2011 NSW election saw the Liberal and National vote (with no three-cornered contests) on 51.1%. The SA Liberal Party win in 1992 was 52.8%. The LNP only polled 49.7% on its landslide Queensland win in 2012, Labor’s decimation owing much to competition from Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland and optional preferential voting. The Kennett Liberal/National coalition polled 52% of the first preference vote in Victoria in 1992.
Under a different electoral system, the Liberal Party polled 54.1% of the vote at the 1992 Tasmanian election, Labor 51.9% in 2002 and the Liberal Party 51.2% in 2014.
So Labor’s landslide victory at the the 2021 WA election is out there in a league of its own in its scale.
