TOPIC:

mikeh wrote: Heading for the business end of the season and there are still 6 teams in the premiership race in what promises to be the most interesting finale to the home and away round for many years. Since the 20 game season is now 10 years old, I had a look back over the ladders since 2003 to see how many games teams had been winning to capture 4th and 2nd spots on the ladder.

Overall, depending on the evenness of the season, the magic numbers appear to be 11 wins to qualify 4th and 13 wins to qualify 2nd. Having said that West Perth have missed finals twice ( 2005 and 2010) when they have won 11 games and this has also happened to East Fremantle once (2011). However West Perth qualified 4th in 2006 with 10 wins and in 2009 with 10 and a half.

Given that Claremont are cruising towards a home second semi final, lets have a look at what lays ahead for the other 5 contenders.

West Perth
Currently : 40 points ( 2nd)
Games Remaining:

East Perth (H)
Peel (H)
Perth (Moora)
East Freo (H)
Swans (A)

What they need to make finals:
Probably just one more win, if it doesn’t come this week, it will be Peel the week after

What they need to get to second spot:
At least 3 more wins, preferably including the East Perth game this week

Verdict:
Victory in this week’s Perth derby will put them in pole position for the double chance. If they can do this I would favour them to beat Peel, Perth and the Sharks and wrap it up

Perth
Currently : 3rd ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

East Freo ( A)
West Perth (Moora)
East Perth ( A)
Claremont (H)
South Fremantle (H)

What they need to make finals:
Beat Souths at home in the last game of the season and snatch at least one of the other four games, the best bet may be East Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
They need to win 4 of these games and beat West Perth and East Perth

Verdict:
Very tough draw for Perth. They will be worthy finalists if they make it

East Perth
Currently : 4th ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

West Perth (A)
Claremont (A)
Subiaco (H)
Perth (H)
South Freo(A)
Subiaco (H)

What they need to make finals:
Possibly need 12 wins because of their poor percentage compared with other teams in the race, so another 3 wins. They have an game in hand over everyone else. They should be able to beat Subiaco (twice)and South Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
Another 5 wins out of 6 to get to 2nd. Would really have to beat West Perth this week to keep their hopes alive

Verdict:
Unless they lose momentum, will certainly make the finals. This weeks game will determine whether they can make 2nd spot.

Swans
Currently : 5th (32 points)
Games Remaining:

Peel ( H)
Peel (A)
Claremont (A)
East Freo (H)
West Perth (H)

What they need to make finals:
3 wins and keep their percentage healthy

What they need to get to second spot:
Win all their remaining 5 games and they may sneak in depending on other results

Verdict:
Swans cannot afford any slip ups against Peel. Two big wins in these games will put them in a position to challenge. If they can then win at least one of their last two home games, they should be there in September

East Fremantle
Currently : 6th ( 28 points)
Games Remaining:

South Fremantle (A)
Perth(H)
West Perth(A)
Swans (A)
Claremont(H)

What they need to make finals:
4 out of 5 of their remaining games, starting with this weeks derby

What they need to get to second spot:
They can’t make 2nd spot

Verdict:
Like Perth they have a very tough draw but unlike Perth they are coming from a long way back. If they lose the derby they can probably start planning for next year.

Based on this information I reckon the ladder will finish
1. Claremont
2. West Perth
3. East Perth
4. Swans
5. Perth
6. East Freo
7. Subiaco
8. South Freo
9. Peel

Wins against Claremont will be gold and will greatly assist teams who do this. Alternatively beware the Bulldogs who are dangerous and capable of causing upsets and changing this table.

My opinion guys. Interested in others comments/views

I'm afraid the loss v EF means Im going to have to say Perth cant make it with that run home.

I've had another look at the run home for all the contenders and I have come to the conclusion that barring Subi or South playing out of their skins against them, East Perth are a shoo in for the 3rd spot in the four. Their only really challenging game for them is Perth and that is at home.

So that leaves the final spot in the four as a battle between East Fremantle, Swans and Perth.
The Sharks have a tough draw playing West Perth, Swans and Claremont. They have all the momentum that the Foxtel cup has given them and may be able to continue this next week.

After this weeks game against Peel where they should move up to 10 wins, Swans have Claremont, East Fremantle and West Perth. So the round 23 game at Bassendean SD v EF looms as a potential elimination final. Swans have their last 2 games at Bassendean so that will be an advantage (I think?)

As for Perth, they can do themselves a great favour by winning at Moora this week, but unlike what some Perth supporters are saying, defeat would not knock them out of the running. Their last three games are against East Perth, Claremont and South Fremantle and they would need to win at least 2 of these, maybe three depending on how the Sharks and Swans are going. Say if Swans happened to drop the game to Peel this week (NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!) or the Sharks lost next week to the Falcons, that would change the landscape for the Dees. The beauty for Perth is that they have that last game against a bottom team to really make it count, so they would still like to be in the running on the last afternoon.

What a finish to the season it promises to be, unlike the AFL where the finalists are already decided. Its not beyond the realms of possibility that supporters of 3 clubs could be at their games, nervously checking around the grounds scores and pulling calculators out of their bags!

The weekends results made a few things clearer about the finalists

1. West Perth are the real deal and will give Claremont a run for their money in the 2nd semi
2. East Perth will probably finish third unless they get too complacent against Subiaco or Souths
3. East Fremantle have a real chance of snatching fourth if they can maintain the form they showed before the foxtel cup final as both Swans and Perth appear to be struggling at the moment.

Next weeks games will add some more pieces to the jigsaw
Perth have one more chance if they can beat East Perth, but looking at the way they played yesterday, they seem to have lost all confidence and it would have to be a massive turn around for them to beat the Royals.

Swans have staggered through two games against Peel with a bye in between, with 8 points but little else to show for it. They will play Claremont, who will be primed for revenge after their defeat by Swans 4 weeks ago. That was Swans last real 4 quarter effort and I wouldn't be confident that they could repeat that win in their current form.

East Fremantle also have a challenging match against West Perth. However they will be encouraged by the fact that they have won their last 3 games at Arena Joondalup.

Whatever happens next weekend, the game at Bassendean between Swans and the Sharks on the 24th August is looming as a potential elimination final.

I think you can rule out Perth now, that loss at Moora was a wipeout, even if they beat EP which I seriously doubt they then face Claremont, they won't beat EP on current form , if the lose that it's curtains and the arse will fall out of the team, I actually fancy Souths chances v them in the final game.

mikeh wrote: The weekends results made a few things clearer about the finalists

1. West Perth are the real deal and will give Claremont a run for their money in the 2nd semi
2. East Perth will probably finish third unless they get too complacent against Subiaco or Souths
3. East Fremantle have a real chance of snatching fourth if they can maintain the form they showed before the foxtel cup final as both Swans and Perth appear to be struggling at the moment.

Next weeks games will add some more pieces to the jigsaw
Perth have one more chance if they can beat East Perth, but looking at the way they played yesterday, they seem to have lost all confidence and it would have to be a massive turn around for them to beat the Royals.

Swans have staggered through two games against Peel with a bye in between, with 8 points but little else to show for it. They will play Claremont, who will be primed for revenge after their defeat by Swans 4 weeks ago. That was Swans last real 4 quarter effort and I wouldn't be confident that they could repeat that win in their current form.

East Fremantle also have a challenging match against West Perth. However they will be encouraged by the fact that they have won their last 3 games at Arena Joondalup.

Whatever happens next weekend, the game at Bassendean between Swans and the Sharks on the 24th August is looming as a potential elimination final.

Mate you gotta hope we don't get umpiring like that on Sat again, but I wont hold my breath

mikeh wrote: Heading for the business end of the season and there are still 6 teams in the premiership race in what promises to be the most interesting finale to the home and away round for many years. Since the 20 game season is now 10 years old, I had a look back over the ladders since 2003 to see how many games teams had been winning to capture 4th and 2nd spots on the ladder.

Overall, depending on the evenness of the season, the magic numbers appear to be 11 wins to qualify 4th and 13 wins to qualify 2nd. Having said that West Perth have missed finals twice ( 2005 and 2010) when they have won 11 games and this has also happened to East Fremantle once (2011). However West Perth qualified 4th in 2006 with 10 wins and in 2009 with 10 and a half.

Given that Claremont are cruising towards a home second semi final, lets have a look at what lays ahead for the other 5 contenders.

West Perth
Currently : 40 points ( 2nd)
Games Remaining:

East Perth (H)
Peel (H)
Perth (Moora)
East Freo (H)
Swans (A)

What they need to make finals:
Probably just one more win, if it doesn’t come this week, it will be Peel the week after

What they need to get to second spot:
At least 3 more wins, preferably including the East Perth game this week

Verdict:
Victory in this week’s Perth derby will put them in pole position for the double chance. If they can do this I would favour them to beat Peel, Perth and the Sharks and wrap it up

Perth
Currently : 3rd ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

East Freo ( A)
West Perth (Moora)
East Perth ( A)
Claremont (H)
South Fremantle (H)

What they need to make finals:
Beat Souths at home in the last game of the season and snatch at least one of the other four games, the best bet may be East Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
They need to win 4 of these games and beat West Perth and East Perth

Verdict:
Very tough draw for Perth. They will be worthy finalists if they make it

East Perth
Currently : 4th ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

West Perth (A)
Claremont (A)
Subiaco (H)
Perth (H)
South Freo(A)
Subiaco (H)

What they need to make finals:
Possibly need 12 wins because of their poor percentage compared with other teams in the race, so another 3 wins. They have an game in hand over everyone else. They should be able to beat Subiaco (twice)and South Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
Another 5 wins out of 6 to get to 2nd. Would really have to beat West Perth this week to keep their hopes alive

Verdict:
Unless they lose momentum, will certainly make the finals. This weeks game will determine whether they can make 2nd spot.

Swans
Currently : 5th (32 points)
Games Remaining:

Peel ( H)
Peel (A)
Claremont (A)
East Freo (H)
West Perth (H)

What they need to make finals:
3 wins and keep their percentage healthy

What they need to get to second spot:
Win all their remaining 5 games and they may sneak in depending on other results

Verdict:
Swans cannot afford any slip ups against Peel. Two big wins in these games will put them in a position to challenge. If they can then win at least one of their last two home games, they should be there in September

East Fremantle
Currently : 6th ( 28 points)
Games Remaining:

South Fremantle (A)
Perth(H)
West Perth(A)
Swans (A)
Claremont(H)

What they need to make finals:
4 out of 5 of their remaining games, starting with this weeks derby

What they need to get to second spot:
They can’t make 2nd spot

Verdict:
Like Perth they have a very tough draw but unlike Perth they are coming from a long way back. If they lose the derby they can probably start planning for next year.

Based on this information I reckon the ladder will finish
1. Claremont
2. West Perth
3. East Perth
4. Swans
5. Perth
6. East Freo
7. Subiaco
8. South Freo
9. Peel

Wins against Claremont will be gold and will greatly assist teams who do this. Alternatively beware the Bulldogs who are dangerous and capable of causing upsets and changing this table.

My opinion guys. Interested in others comments/views

Well picked Mikeh. 11 wins would indeed be sufficient to make 4th. Given the Shark's 12 goal win today, they can seal their spot with a win against Swans next week as the percentage gap is over 9 percent between the Sharks & Swans. If the Sharks then lost against Claremont in the last round they would probably still make it.

If Swans win next week they would go to eleven wins but could still miss out if EF beat Claremont & Swans lost to WP in the last round.

So whoever makes it will only need 11 wins.

I think that Swans will have to beat East Fremantle next week to retain a chance of making it. IMO They wouldn't be able to make up the percentage difference in the last week of fixtures. 99% sure that East Perth have wrapped up their spot but a shock loss to South Fremantle next week might put them back in the mix given their lower percentage. Could also give the winner of the Swans V Sharks game a faint possibility of a home final?? Dreaming maybe.

mikeh wrote: I think that Swans will have to beat East Fremantle next week to retain a chance of making it. IMO They wouldn't be able to make up the percentage difference in the last week of fixtures. 99% sure that East Perth have wrapped up their spot but a shock loss to South Fremantle next week might put them back in the mix given their lower percentage. Could also give the winner of the Swans V Sharks game a faint possibility of a home final?? Dreaming maybe.

Mikeh, I have seen stranger things in sport. I think SF would be an outside chance to upset the Royals. Souths are a very dangerous & unpredictable side & if EP have a bad day who knows. If the winner between Swans & EF win their last game they would get third. However, I would not put any money on EP losing. It is also a big ask for EF to beat Claremont or Swans to roll WP.

Well, well, well Swans find themselves outside the top 4 tonight!
Makes the round 23 match between Swan Districts and East Fremantle like an elimination final. Both clubs will dearly like to win because they both are up against it in the last qualifying round.