TOPIC:

Heading for the business end of the season and there are still 6 teams in the premiership race in what promises to be the most interesting finale to the home and away round for many years. Since the 20 game season is now 10 years old, I had a look back over the ladders since 2003 to see how many games teams had been winning to capture 4th and 2nd spots on the ladder.

Overall, depending on the evenness of the season, the magic numbers appear to be 11 wins to qualify 4th and 13 wins to qualify 2nd. Having said that West Perth have missed finals twice ( 2005 and 2010) when they have won 11 games and this has also happened to East Fremantle once (2011). However West Perth qualified 4th in 2006 with 10 wins and in 2009 with 10 and a half.

Given that Claremont are cruising towards a home second semi final, lets have a look at what lays ahead for the other 5 contenders.

West Perth
Currently : 40 points ( 2nd)
Games Remaining:

East Perth (H)
Peel (H)
Perth (Moora)
East Freo (H)
Swans (A)

What they need to make finals:
Probably just one more win, if it doesn’t come this week, it will be Peel the week after

What they need to get to second spot:
At least 3 more wins, preferably including the East Perth game this week

Verdict:
Victory in this week’s Perth derby will put them in pole position for the double chance. If they can do this I would favour them to beat Peel, Perth and the Sharks and wrap it up

Perth
Currently : 3rd ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

East Freo ( A)
West Perth (Moora)
East Perth ( A)
Claremont (H)
South Fremantle (H)

What they need to make finals:
Beat Souths at home in the last game of the season and snatch at least one of the other four games, the best bet may be East Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
They need to win 4 of these games and beat West Perth and East Perth

Verdict:
Very tough draw for Perth. They will be worthy finalists if they make it

East Perth
Currently : 4th ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

West Perth (A)
Claremont (A)
Subiaco (H)
Perth (H)
South Freo(A)
Subiaco (H)

What they need to make finals:
Possibly need 12 wins because of their poor percentage compared with other teams in the race, so another 3 wins. They have an game in hand over everyone else. They should be able to beat Subiaco (twice)and South Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
Another 5 wins out of 6 to get to 2nd. Would really have to beat West Perth this week to keep their hopes alive

Verdict:
Unless they lose momentum, will certainly make the finals. This weeks game will determine whether they can make 2nd spot.

Swans
Currently : 5th (32 points)
Games Remaining:

Peel ( H)
Peel (A)
Claremont (A)
East Freo (H)
West Perth (H)

What they need to make finals:
3 wins and keep their percentage healthy

What they need to get to second spot:
Win all their remaining 5 games and they may sneak in depending on other results

Verdict:
Swans cannot afford any slip ups against Peel. Two big wins in these games will put them in a position to challenge. If they can then win at least one of their last two home games, they should be there in September

East Fremantle
Currently : 6th ( 28 points)
Games Remaining:

South Fremantle (A)
Perth(H)
West Perth(A)
Swans (A)
Claremont(H)

What they need to make finals:
4 out of 5 of their remaining games, starting with this weeks derby

What they need to get to second spot:
They can’t make 2nd spot

Verdict:
Like Perth they have a very tough draw but unlike Perth they are coming from a long way back. If they lose the derby they can probably start planning for next year.

Based on this information I reckon the ladder will finish
1. Claremont
2. West Perth
3. East Perth
4. Swans
5. Perth
6. East Freo
7. Subiaco
8. South Freo
9. Peel

Wins against Claremont will be gold and will greatly assist teams who do this. Alternatively beware the Bulldogs who are dangerous and capable of causing upsets and changing this table.

My opinion guys. Interested in others comments/views

Just looking back over my post I have realised that there is a distinct possibility that a team with 12 wins may miss out on finals on percentage if say Swans win 4 out of their last 5 and Perth win 3 which is possible looking at the draw. That would be unprecedented and very unlucky for the team that misses out

I might be in the wind but here goes.
Pointy end of the 2013 season.
With six qualifying rounds to go before the 2013 finals, there are some HUGE games to be played over the remaining rounds.
This week sees Round 19. The only footy game in town this week is the Fremantle derby being played at the port. A real danger game for the Sharks and one they could ill-afford to drop. Should Easts win, they will gain a game on Perth who have the bye. One cannot see West Perth, Claremont and Swan districts being troubled in their respective matches. The top four should be Cl, WP, Perth and Swan Districts. If East Fremantle can come away with the chocolates, they will be capable of getting their toes in the 4.
Round 20 on the 3rd of August and East Fremantle host Perth in a HUGE match for both clubs. Perth would be looking for the win to keep them in the top 4. Swan Districts will be sweating on the side because they have the bye. One would assume the other 3 home teams to win.
Round 21 and three teams in Claremont, South Fremantle and East Fremantle have the bye. The BIG game this week is out at Lathlain between Perth and West Perth. The Demons would want to keep the impetus going with a win to keep their spot in the top 4 more secure. West Perth would want to steady the ship as the finals draw nearer.
Two massive games in Round 22 with Claremont hosting Swan Districts and at the Arena, West Perth take on East Fremantle. Both Swan Districts and East Fremantle will be looking to take home the bacon. West Perth and Claremont would be after the win to consolidate.
And the big games continue in Round 23 where everyone’s attention will be with Perth taking on Claremont out at Lathlain and the Boys from Bassendean hosting East Fremantle. And West Perth having the bye and keeping an eye on results.
The last qualifying round has three Massive games in relation to the make-up of the top 4. East Fremantle host Claremont, Perth (at home)are in the danger game against South Fremantle. Swan Districts are hosting West Perth. It’s going to be a tough round for the tipsters.
I think at this stage the top four after the qualifying rounds to be Claremont, West Perth, Perth and Swan Districts. I think East Fremantle will just miss out but they have done very well in the Foxtel Cup.

mikeh wrote: Heading for the business end of the season and there are still 6 teams in the premiership race in what promises to be the most interesting finale to the home and away round for many years. Since the 20 game season is now 10 years old, I had a look back over the ladders since 2003 to see how many games teams had been winning to capture 4th and 2nd spots on the ladder.

Overall, depending on the evenness of the season, the magic numbers appear to be 11 wins to qualify 4th and 13 wins to qualify 2nd. Having said that West Perth have missed finals twice ( 2005 and 2010) when they have won 11 games and this has also happened to East Fremantle once (2011). However West Perth qualified 4th in 2006 with 10 wins and in 2009 with 10 and a half.

Given that Claremont are cruising towards a home second semi final, lets have a look at what lays ahead for the other 5 contenders.

West Perth
Currently : 40 points ( 2nd)
Games Remaining:

East Perth (H)
Peel (H)
Perth (Moora)
East Freo (H)
Swans (A)

What they need to make finals:
Probably just one more win, if it doesn’t come this week, it will be Peel the week after

What they need to get to second spot:
At least 3 more wins, preferably including the East Perth game this week

Verdict:
Victory in this week’s Perth derby will put them in pole position for the double chance. If they can do this I would favour them to beat Peel, Perth and the Sharks and wrap it up

Perth
Currently : 3rd ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

East Freo ( A)
West Perth (Moora)
East Perth ( A)
Claremont (H)
South Fremantle (H)

What they need to make finals:
Beat Souths at home in the last game of the season and snatch at least one of the other four games, the best bet may be East Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
They need to win 4 of these games and beat West Perth and East Perth

Verdict:
Very tough draw for Perth. They will be worthy finalists if they make it

East Perth
Currently : 4th ( 36 points)
Games Remaining:

West Perth (A)
Claremont (A)
Subiaco (H)
Perth (H)
South Freo(A)
Subiaco (H)

What they need to make finals:
Possibly need 12 wins because of their poor percentage compared with other teams in the race, so another 3 wins. They have an game in hand over everyone else. They should be able to beat Subiaco (twice)and South Fremantle

What they need to get to second spot:
Another 5 wins out of 6 to get to 2nd. Would really have to beat West Perth this week to keep their hopes alive

Verdict:
Unless they lose momentum, will certainly make the finals. This weeks game will determine whether they can make 2nd spot.

Swans
Currently : 5th (32 points)
Games Remaining:

Peel ( H)
Peel (A)
Claremont (A)
East Freo (H)
West Perth (H)

What they need to make finals:
3 wins and keep their percentage healthy

What they need to get to second spot:
Win all their remaining 5 games and they may sneak in depending on other results

Verdict:
Swans cannot afford any slip ups against Peel. Two big wins in these games will put them in a position to challenge. If they can then win at least one of their last two home games, they should be there in September

East Fremantle
Currently : 6th ( 28 points)
Games Remaining:

South Fremantle (A)
Perth(H)
West Perth(A)
Swans (A)
Claremont(H)

What they need to make finals:
4 out of 5 of their remaining games, starting with this weeks derby

What they need to get to second spot:
They can’t make 2nd spot

Verdict:
Like Perth they have a very tough draw but unlike Perth they are coming from a long way back. If they lose the derby they can probably start planning for next year.

Based on this information I reckon the ladder will finish
1. Claremont
2. West Perth
3. East Perth
4. Swans
5. Perth
6. East Freo
7. Subiaco
8. South Freo
9. Peel

Wins against Claremont will be gold and will greatly assist teams who do this. Alternatively beware the Bulldogs who are dangerous and capable of causing upsets and changing this table.

My opinion guys. Interested in others comments/views

mikeh, I am glad you have brought this topic up. I think to make this year's top 4 you would need 12 wins & a reasonable percentage. 11 wins won't cut it. Claremont look vulnerable at the moment & could suffer more losses to teams hungry to make finals. South Fremantle are much improved & very dangerous. I expect a good contest in our encounter with them at Fremantle.

westaussieguy wrote: I might be in the wind but here goes.
Pointy end of the 2013 season.
With six qualifying rounds to go before the 2013 finals, there are some HUGE games to be played over the remaining rounds.
This week sees Round 19. The only footy game in town this week is the Fremantle derby being played at the port. A real danger game for the Sharks and one they could ill-afford to drop. Should Easts win, they will gain a game on Perth who have the bye. One cannot see West Perth, Claremont and Swan districts being troubled in their respective matches. The top four should be Cl, WP, Perth and Swan Districts. If East Fremantle can come away with the chocolates, they will be capable of getting their toes in the 4.
Round 20 on the 3rd of August and East Fremantle host Perth in a HUGE match for both clubs. Perth would be looking for the win to keep them in the top 4. Swan Districts will be sweating on the side because they have the bye. One would assume the other 3 home teams to win.
Round 21 and three teams in Claremont, South Fremantle and East Fremantle have the bye. The BIG game this week is out at Lathlain between Perth and West Perth. The Demons would want to keep the impetus going with a win to keep their spot in the top 4 more secure. West Perth would want to steady the ship as the finals draw nearer.
Two massive games in Round 22 with Claremont hosting Swan Districts and at the Arena, West Perth take on East Fremantle. Both Swan Districts and East Fremantle will be looking to take home the bacon. West Perth and Claremont would be after the win to consolidate.
And the big games continue in Round 23 where everyone’s attention will be with Perth taking on Claremont out at Lathlain and the Boys from Bassendean hosting East Fremantle. And West Perth having the bye and keeping an eye on results.
The last qualifying round has three Massive games in relation to the make-up of the top 4. East Fremantle host Claremont, Perth (at home)are in the danger game against South Fremantle. Swan Districts are hosting West Perth. It’s going to be a tough round for the tipsters.
I think at this stage the top four after the qualifying rounds to be Claremont, West Perth, Perth and Swan Districts. I think East Fremantle will just miss out but they have done very well in the Foxtel Cup.

So you have completely written off East Perth??? I assume that only because you didn't mention them. Big Call!

At this time of the year it gets down to %'s if there is a bottle-neck on the ladder. I see Swan Districts have a healthy percentage (second to Claremont). Swan Districts 112.4%, followed by West Perth 109.7%, Perth 107.7% and the Sharks on 106.1% but 2 games away from the top 4 (at the time of writing)

I would expect EP to belt Subiaco in their 2 remaining games against them & also to beat Souths. I would also favour them to shade Perth. That will give them 13 games & a spot in the 4. On current form they could possibly win 5 or 6 games.

I would be surprised if EF made it.

EP will win at least 3 of remaining 6 and therefore finish at least 3.

This leave the 4th spot between Perth and SD.

I would be surprised if Perth won 3 of their last 5. However if they beat EF I think anything could happen v WP in Moora and from here momentum.

Perth must win 3 and therefore it will be up to SD to win 4.

If Swans win 4 of 5 they are in (two games are against Peel)and well and truly deserve to be.

I don't think EF can make it now.

I favour EP to grab 2nd spot, with 3 - 4 wins out of 6.

WP will hang in at 3rd.

Perth have their best chance in years to grab 4th spot, I think they can hang on. As long as the sense of occasion does not get the better of them.

Swans have the easier run home which is the only issue for Perth.

I think the 3 winnable games for Perth are against East Freo,West Perth and South Freo.
Hopefully South do Perth a favour this week and knock East Freo out of the finals race which imo would make them an easier target for Perth in the next couple of weeks,West Perth on neutral ground in the country...we have to be a chance there and if we are to be a finals contender then we have to beat the 8th placed team South.

12 wins may not be enough which would mean we have to find 1 more win which leaves only games against East Perth and Claremont,tough assignment.
We will probably rue those 3 games we lost by less than a kick,2 of those we should have won!