TOPIC:

5 spots available, 6 teams still in the race. Shapes up as the most interesting run into a finals series for years. Here are each teams last four games

Peel Thunder - currently 1st 40 points - Claremont(H), SF (A), SD (H), EP (A)
Peel have the toughest run home of all the teams, playing 4 of the other 5 teams vying for finals. If they can win one of these they will at least make the 5 but could easily drop out of the top 3 if they lose 2 or 3 of these games which is possible

East Perth 2nd 40 points - WP (H), WC (A), EF (H), PT(H)
Despite their setback yesterday, East Perth should finish in the top 3 with a minimum of 48 points and if they can win one of the last 2 games they may finish on top of the ladder

Swans 3rd 38 points - Subiaco (H), EF, PT(A) Perth(H)
Swans need to win their 2 home games which would take them up to 46 points and they should get a top 5 spot with this. To get a top 3 position they will probably need to win one of the away fixtures against EF or Peel (depending on the other results). I heard a rumour yesterday that the East Freo game might be played at Arena Joondalup which would suit Swans running game.

South Fremantle 4th 34 points - EF (H), PT (H), P(A) WP (H)
Souths are still very much in the race for 3rd, they should beat Perth and West Perth so victory in the Derby or against Peel will put them on 46 points and definitely finals bound. The advantage for the Dogs is that 3 out of 4 of these games are at home.

East Fremantle 5th - 32 points SF (A), SD, EP (A) WC
The Sharks have done so well to remain in the hunt given their lack of a home ground this year and their 4 point deduction. They should beat West Coast in the last round but will need to win 2 of 3 tough games before that to bring them up to 44 points. If they lose the derby this week, things will start looking tough for them

Claremont 6th - 32 points  PT (A), WP(H), WC(H), S(A)
Claremont have the easiest run of the 6 teams where they can chalk in victories in their last 3 games to move to 44 which I suspect will be enough to get them into at least 5th. If they can beat Peel as well they could even squeeze into the top 3 depending on percentage and other results

A very interesting 4 weeks to come.

 Most interesting topic.Pee are not guaranteed a win in any of the last H & A fixtures.The Royals had a narrow victory over West Perth in rnd 9 and should bounce back to form in week 18. They also had the narrowest of wins against East Fremantle in week 7. Perhaps this time is   different as the Sharks have won 5 out of their last 6 games. East Perth should win their last Home game before Finals begin. They should be able to win 3 of those games I suppose the question being, when is the Swan Districts bubble going to burst?They’ve already had a 2 goal win over Subiaco. The Lions would love to turn that around this week. Then a very narrow loss to East Fremantle in rnd 5. The week 20 match is going to be interesting, and then finish with a Home game against Perth in rnd 21. Perth defeated Swans narrowly in week 3 from memory. Given Swans current form, they should win be winning 3 (if not 4) of the remaining qualifying games.The Fremantle derby this week is pivotal for both teams. South Fremantle won the previous by 2 or 3 goals earlier in the season. South Fremantle won 2 of their last 6 matches, losing 3 and 1 drawn game. If East Fremantle not been penalised, they’d be ahead of the Bulldogs on the league ladder. Difficult to pick a winner in the derby. If they win the Mandurah game would be a bonus.  They bhould be winning rounds 20 & 21.And Claremont currently sitting in 6th position in the league.  After winning 6 of their last 7 games. One would think the last 3 H & A fixtures are winnable. Although they previously lost to West Perth.Tigers should win this week and should win the last 2 matches as well.One never knows the final composition could come down to the week 21 fixtures?All in all, it’s going to be an enthralling lead up to the Finals as we are at the pointy end of the season.

Looking at the last 6 games for each team shines a light on who is building towards the pointy end of the season and who may be dropping off:

SD (5 wins and a draw)
Claremont (5 wins, 1 loss)
EF (5 wins, 1 loss)
Peel (4 wins, 2 loss)

Subi (3 wins, 3 loss)
EP (3 wins, 3 loss)
SF (2 wins, draw,  3 loss)
Perth (1 win, 5 loss)
WCE (1 win, 5 loss)
WP (0 wins, 6 loss)

Out of the top 3, in the remaining 4 games, Swans play 2 outside the top 5, the rest are 2 with Claremont playing 3 out of 4 outside the top 5.

Big games this weekend with the Derby and Peel v Claremont

Perth and WP are due wins, and have the capability of shaping who's in and out of the top 5...as are Subi on their day....and I am glad EF have played them  all TBH. Some great games on the agenda, all to play for, for all  6 teams in the  finals gun. Injuries will no doubt play a part as well, some teams have fared better then others on the injury front up to now, be interesting if that good luck can continue or comes back to bite at the wrong time of the year.

Could not get a better season finish wise, really interesting mix of outcomes, plenty of clubs in it.

I believe PT and EF will go undefeated in the next 4 weeks and therefore finish top 2 with EF having a greater % than EP. EP to finish on 48 with 2 more wins and Swans with 2 more wins also, to finish on 46 and Claremont getting the final spot in the 5 with 3 wins while SF drop out with only the 2 wins. 

Of course, any games that teams are expected to win and instead lose will have severe ramifications, especially losing games to teams outside the 5. 

As a Swans fan if they lose to Subi this week it will be a nervous few weeks as I don’t think we are any chance of beating EF or PT regardless of where games are played. 

I'm inclined to disagree about Peel Thunder, Danger. They struggled to overcome Perth last week and have by far the most difficult fixtures in the last 4 weeks of all the contenders. Also the Dockers are pushing for a place in the AFL finals and a few injuries/suspensions might see them be more conservative with their reserves players and withdraw them from games if needed, thus unsettling the team. Whilst in an ideal world I would like to see them lose all four games and drop out altogether, I don't think thats going to happen but they may drop 2 of those 4 and finish on 48. I would give Swans more of a chance of beating Peel than East Fremantle.

Assuming that Swans win their 2 home games (fingers crossed!) and pinch one of the away fixtures, they will finish on 50 points which should be enough to qualify top 3. 

We could have a logjam on the ladder at the end of the qualifying round with only a few premiership points or percentage separating the 6 teams. Any slip ups are going to be very costly.

Of course Subiaco, West Coast, Perth and West Perth have the potential to throw a huge spanner in the works of all the contenders by causing upsets which would make things even more intriguing.

Wishful thinking there mikeh. I think PT are just about to amp things up and those in the wings will be busting a gut to get in the team and a big block of training forthcoming will only make them stronger. The only hope the comp has is a combination of injury, suspension and travelling emg on away games. 

Danger wrote:

Wishful thinking there mikeh. I think PT are just about to amp things up and those in the wings will be busting a gut to get in the team and a big block of training forthcoming will only make them stronger. The only hope the comp has is a combination of injury, suspension and travelling emg on away games. 



in swans favour will be Freo play away and on a Saturday so at least one emg will stay over. 
 

This weeks derby is critical, If South Fremantle win it will put them 6 points ahead of their neighbours ( and Possibly Claremont as well). A win to East Fremantle will put them 2 points ahead of the Bulldogs and it will be Souths under pressure and possibly out of the top 5 if Claremont cause an upset