TOPIC:

This is a 500 to 1 long shot but it's still mathematically possible. So what needs to happen?

1. Claremont need to win their last three games against Subiaco, West Perth and East Perth
2. East Fremantle need to lose their last two games against Swans and Subiaco
3. If (1) and (2) both happen, the Sharks and Tigers would finish on 44 points, but of course there is still the 16% percentage gap for Claremont to make up. I had a play with a couple of scenarios on my calculator and came to the unscientific conclusion that to overtake East Freo on percentage, the Tigers would have to win their three games by an average of 45 points ( note average not total) and East Fremantle would have to lose their two games by around the same average ( so if Swans beat them by a point say, Subiaco would have to beat them by about 90).
4. If (3) was to happen, both teams percentages would be around 93 or so and would give Claremont a chance of sneaking in.

In conclusion if I was a Claremont fan I wouldn't worry too much about any holiday bookings that I may have made for September and also I probably need to find something more exciting to do on tuesday night other than playing with a calculator.....

Mikeh not another Maths 101 tutorial mate! Read a few of those on the WP thread just recently. The frustrating thing for Cl is that they are in a.better position than EF to push deep into the finals if they were to make it.that slow start and narrow loss will probably come back to haunt them. Tough gig to beat either EP or Subi let alone both by the margins you talk of.........EF getting done by Subi and SD by those margins yeah that is a possibility....but if that was to happen then they wouldn't deserve a finals spot. Reckon EP & Subi have the tall timber and mids to easily nullify Cl.......plus the forwards to kick a matchwinning score.....CL best chance is 20 goal win over WP and EF get deducted 8 pts because Atom Stadium is a health hazard and Malaxos getting done for abusing the umps....now both of those r a possibility!

Freezin wrote: Mikeh not another Maths 101 tutorial mate! Read a few of those on the WP thread just recently. The frustrating thing for Cl is that they are in a.better position than EF to push deep into the finals if they were to make it.that slow start and narrow loss will probably come back to haunt them. Tough gig to beat either EP or Subi let alone both by the margins you talk of.........EF getting done by Subi and SD by those margins yeah that is a possibility....but if that was to happen then they wouldn't deserve a finals spot. Reckon EP & Subi have the tall timber and mids to easily nullify Cl.......plus the forwards to kick a matchwinning score.....CL best chance is 20 goal win over WP and EF get deducted 8 pts because Atom Stadium is a health hazard and Malaxos getting done for abusing the umps....now both of those r a possibility!

If East Freo's oval Freezin warrants an 8 point deduction, then Claremont would have a negitive points tally based on the condition of the Claremont Showgrounds.

mikeh: thanks for that -- it is possible, although I am tipping they will fall a game short. I think they will beat Subiaco and WP, they may beat WP by a big margin, the key game is the EP game.

I expect EF to lose both games.

NB: on the Subi thread, few are tipping a win for us.

Amazing the Subi guys think they cant win v Cl this weekend.........Subi have two rucks who more than match Seaby, Boland, Yarren, Waters and Hampson all in the top ten goalkickers this year, Horsley is a far better mid than Blackwell.......wont be a walkover but Subi will be Cl toughest test for about 4 weeks.....Cl beat a waning SD twice, EF in a quagmire, Perth who r the 2014 wooden spooners, WP who have been more cold than hot this year......still all good wins but Subi and EP have the quality talls that Cl dont have.......that to me will be the deciding factor......good for the comp if they do keep that 4th spot open till the last H&A game this year tho.....

Freezin: Good points. What will happen with Malaxos?

After all that I think Subiaco will put paid to all that mathematics on Saturday and the Sharks will confirm their finals spot without even playing......

ArkRoyal wrote: Freezin: Good points. What will happen with Malaxos?

AR.....pretty sure if EF miss out Malaxos coaching tenure would come under serious scrutiny.....4 years with one GF and 3 x 5th placings.....all 3 mind you decided on the last H&A game......still think EF will keep 4th spot.....not saying they deserve it, but CL very slow start to the year has bit them in the arse.....

I guess final 4 spots are decided over 20 odd games and not just 6 - 8 games, saying that out of EF, SD and Cl, Cl on current form look the team most likely to push either Subi & EP at present......wont do Cl any harm missing out, they have had a pretty good run over the last 5 years....even more!.....Richo back, Maister back, good youngsters etc, they will be back on track next year for some finals footy......thus why Broadbridges contract extension already done and dusted.

Freezin wrote: Amazing the Subi guys think they cant win v Cl this weekend.........Subi have two rucks who more than match Seaby, Boland, Yarren, Waters and Hampson all in the top ten goalkickers this year, Horsley is a far better mid than Blackwell.......wont be a walkover but Subi will be Cl toughest test for about 4 weeks.....Cl beat a waning SD twice, EF in a quagmire, Perth who r the 2014 wooden spooners, WP who have been more cold than hot this year......still all good wins but Subi and EP have the quality talls that Cl dont have.......that to me will be the deciding factor......good for the comp if they do keep that 4th spot open till the last H&A game this year tho.....

Horsley a far better midfielder than blackwell? Big call

Blackwell is a champ mate, no doubt about that, just think Horsley has played better than him this year.......and with him being younger I think will continue to do so in years to come.