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Gee wish I could teleport myself to Lords for the day. Can you imagine what the atmosphere is going to be like there? I have been there a few times for test matches and it is the closest thing to a religious experience for cricket fans.
I sense trouble for Australia tonight for the reasons that you have outlined ADGM. They have yet to find a consistent 100 over performance and their batting other than Finch and Warner and bowling other than Starc and Cummins has been a bit hit and miss. England will come out with all guns blazing after their unexpected defeat to Sri Lanka. Defeat in this game for England will mean that Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will be all snapping at their heels. They haven't risen to number 1 in the world by accident and I have an uneasy feeling that they might make Australia pay tonight for their slip ups. Hope I am wrong.

If I was Langer I would be seriously considering playing Nathan Lyon

Indeed, Mike, it should be an absolute beauty tonight and, like you, I'd love to be at Lord's.
I definitely think Nathan Lyon is worth including to strengthen an Aussie bowling attack that relies too heavily on Mitch Starc and Pat Cummins.
Neither side can afford a slip-up given their run home.
After this match, England plays India and New Zealand, while Australia has NZ and an underachieving South African team that will want to exit the tournament with a bang.
NZ has Pakistan, Australia and England, while India has the easiest run of the top four with matches against the West Indies, England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Given Australia, England and NZ are, in effect, playing a triangular tournament, you wouldn't want to lose both games.
That said, for either Bangladesh or Sri Lanka to sneak into fourth spot, they'd have to win all their remaining games.
The Deshis have India and Pakistan, while the Lankans have SA, WI and India - the common denominator, India, makes it unlikely either will progress.
Then we have a factor far more unpredictable than any of the 10 competing teams - the English weather!

The trend is clear in the ICC CwC.Win the toss + bat first and score 300+.And the team batting second will crash for under 250 runs.The toss will be huge AU v Eng.

Since Finch struggles to win the toss at the best of times....Eng to bat first then mate....LOL.....as Archie says....Eng lose here and the heat will certainly be on them with all those sub continent teams breathing down their neck....realistically Aust needs one more win to sew up a top 4 spot.....

Great win overnight, fantastic to see Behrendorf get a 5 for...Eng conditions are perfect for him, surprised NCN had played more games as he has, but looks like Aust might have found their starting 11 now....GOAT first up showed what a cool customer he is.....Cummins needs a wicket or three just to keep all opposing teams on their toes facing Aust bowling attack....just need to find away to push that innings total up over 300 against the stronger attacks.....Finch and Warner did well considering the early conditions, Maxy is a conundrum, do you put him in with 5 overs left or earlier....no time to relax but hey I would rather be an Aust fan right now then an Eng fan that is for sure...

Fantastic effort by Australia. Remember this was the team that thrashed them 5-0 less than 12 months ago. Finch and Warner set the tone on the dicey wicket and although the batting fell away somewhat after that, 285 was still over par on that wicket I thought. Careys little cameo was a ripper and converted a potential 265 into 20 runs more. Starc was just outstanding, producing a wonderful spell culminating in that Jaffer that skittled Stokes,reminiscent of the "McCullum" ball from the 2015 final. All the bowlers were consistent and I think this is the attack that they should take into the semi.Great to see Berendorff rewarded with a 5 for. He has had such a tough road with injury.
As for England, I was surprised how poor their batting was,other than Stokes and they would now be feeling the pressure having to beat India on Sunday to stay ahead of the chasing pack

Whilst a great knock by Stokes, dropping and kicking his bat after getting yorked by Starc was a bit drama queenish....Yep get the passion and all that, but showed no confidence what so ever in Woakes, Moen et al to finish off the job....piss poor body language from the guy....seemed like he was saying...."No hope now because I got out"....not all about you sadly Stokesy.....would love for Eng to get rolled by India and NZ....the whole country will implode big time I reckon

I fully endorse the previous comments on last night's match.
The occasional fragility of England's top order was on show last night - they don't seem to enjoy facing tall left-arm quicks.
However, as Mike said, Finch (496 runs in the tournament thus far) and Warner (500) laid the foundations for a defendable total.
That's three century partnerships for this duo so far and an overall first-wicket average of 92.
Freez, you're spot on about Finch and coin tosses - only one "success" in seven matches.
Despite their strong ODI form leading up to the World Cup, England may be feeling the weight of expectation playing in front of home crowds.
I still expect they'll win one of their remaining two matches and qualify for the finals, but for now Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan (I think they'll beat New Zealand tonight) are still alive.

England are playing without three batsmen -- Hales, Denley and Roy; they are having the same problems Australia had without Warner and Smith; it will take a big effort to make the four from here on their part.

gtr: the big question is will Morgan notice the trend?