TOPIC:

You would lean more towards a 2 horse race as it looks like the depth of the both Ta's and Uni are far better than Scarborough.

Uni's Reserves not losing a game and Ta's only losing one to Uni. Where is scarborough have only won 3 games. Their depth will really be tested if they hit some injuries or have a few players go on holidays. This was met likely on show against North Beach.

Interesting to Note North Beach are promoting their Past Players day for the game against Ta's. Obviously expect a big crowd will help them get across the line.

Definitely a fair gap emerging between the top two and the rest. The battle for other spots gets closer each week now with Wesley Curtin and CBC now appearing to have emerged from their slumber and Scarborough rapidly coming back to the field. If Wesley knock off Scarborough next week and other results go as expected, there will only be half a game separating third and seventh, setting up a ripping run to the line.

Relegation looks pretty certain for HC & Kalamunda unless the wheels totally fall off Kelmscott in the second half of the year. A win against HC next week will put that to rest and seal the fate of the bottom two and the Bulldogs could well have a big say in who gets to the finals.

Very tough to call how things will pan out, but will stick my head in the noose at the half way mark with predictions for final placings come round 18:

Trinity Aquinas (Premiers)
University
CBC
West Coast
Wesley Curtin

North Beach
Scarborough
Kelmscott
Kalamunda
Hamersley Carine

Good write up TK!

Whilst TA's & University have a 3 to 4 game gap on the sides below them (3rd to 7th)I think the real question now is how much can Wesley and CBC improve to claim a place in the 2016 finals?

Unfortunately for Kelmscott their percentage makes it impossible for them to make finals, but as you say it is hard to see Kalamunda recovering enough to climb over Kelmscott to avoid relegation.

So my mid season appraisal and finishing order is as follows:

University (8&1)
Should be happy with their start, with their only loss against TA's at home. Uni continue to put away the teams that count but rarely destroy the sides in the bottom five. They remain firm favourites in my eyes. Fantastic strength in reserves and colts not having dropped a game in either team.
Will finish 1st

Trinity Aquinas (8&0 1D
A reasonably perfect scorecard with the only slight hic-ups a draw against Scabs and their lowest winning margin (21 pts) against North Beach this week. Their main aim in the second half of the season will be to retain Top spot. Their Reserves are very strong, so injuries should not be a factor in finals.
Will finish 2nd

Wesley Curtin (4&5)
Started the season 1&4 but have started to play the sort of footy that has seen them play three GF's in four years. Were unlucky to lose to Scabs (3pts) & WCC (2pts),so could easily be 6&3. For mine they are the most likely side to jump back into the top 5 and if they do then they will be a side that is capable of winning the flag. Reasonably strong in the Reserves (6&3) so injuries should not derail their chances.
Will finish 3rd

North Beach (5&4)
After dropping their first two games of the year they have improved tremendously. Only real hiccup was the loss against Kelmscott (7pt). Took it up to TA's last week, and certainly held their own. Fantastic strength in reserves and colts having only dropped 1 game in each grade. Will continue to improve.
Will finish 4th

West Coast (5&4)
The City Beach boys are playing well enough to play finals but they have still have not got me convinced. Their next three games against TA's, NB & Uni will determine their fate. At least two wins in those games are required to keep them in the race. The downside for WCC is their lack of any real strength in their Reserves (2&7).
Will finish 5th

Scarborough (5&3) 1D
The early season pacesetters have come back to the field. They SHOULD still play finals but I am not convinced. Their next game against Wesley will tell the story. Were lucky to draw with TA's and defeat Wesley(3pts)& Kala(4pts), so could easily be 3&6. For mine they are the most likely side to drop out of the top 5 Add to the mix a lack of any real strength in their Reserves (3&6) and finals will be difficult.
Will finish 6th


CBC (4&5)
After a horror run of 5 straight losses CBC have got back their mojo and have now won three straight. They will need to go 6&3 in the 2nd half of the season to have any chance and even then their woeful percentage will make it that much harder for them to make finals. Reasonably strong in their Reserves (5&4).
Will finish 7th

Kelmscott (3&6)
After forfeiting the first game against Hamersley I am amazed at how resilient this club has been. The Bulldogs should be (4&5)with a competitive percentage for the season. They will as TK says shake a few feathers in the second half and will not be relegated.
Will finish 8th


Kalamunda (1&eight)
Were unlucky in a couple of games to lose to Kelmy (4pts) & Scabs 4pts), so could easily be 3&6 with a strong chance of surviving in A Grade. However that won't happen now and they are destined for B Grade in 2017.
Will finish 9th

Hamersley Carine (1&eight)
Just a horrible return to A Grade. They did very well to win the B Grade Flag from 5th last year but it just shows WHY to warrant promotion into A Grade teams MUST have competitive teams in all three grades. Will not win a game in A Grade.

Will finish 10th

5 matches to go till finals and plenty of questions still to be answered on the run home.

If CBC get up over West Coast this weekend then the Top 5 looks to be locked away. Expect Uni to finish 1st and TAs 2nd. North Beach and CBC have a pretty good run home so the question is can one of them push Scarborough out of 3rd spot.

The bottom 5 looks a little more interesting with the race for relegation heating up. Kalamunda would be disappointed with last weekends draw with Hamersley which see them still fighting to stay in A Grade. This weekends results between North Beach v Kelmscott and West Coast v Curtin Wesley could be season defining and either save or sink clubs A Grade futures.

Four games to go and the both the top five and bottom five are settled for the season.

Either University or TA's will finish on top and have the week off in week one of the finals.

North Beach still have a slim chance of finishing third but will have to win three of the last four and both Scabs & TA's in the process. If CBC defeat Scabs in Rnd 18,then Nth Beach will finish 3rd.

CBC cannot pinch 3rd spot so they will be playing either North Beach or Scarborough in the elimination final.

West Coast may play an unlikely part in saving Kelmscott from relegation if the Bulldogs can beat them next week and West Coast beat Kalamunda in Rnd 18. Unfortunately for Kalamunda they play Uni, TA's & Nth Beach in the next three games so relegation is a real possibility.

Anyone still thinking its not a 2 horse race?

2 points between 1 & 2 and then a whole 3 games + percentage to third...

Will be interesting to see how the final three rounds pan out and who can scramble into the 5! I think a lot of it will come down to if either of West Coast or CBC can knock off Scarborough they will make the 5

Probably right, Wiz - yes, it is a two horse race and those Scarb games will determine who falls inot the five. The only other unlikely scenario comes about if Curtin Wesley can somehow knock off Uni this week and Scarb hold their form to beat both West Coast & CBC. If that happens, Curtin could somehow find themselves in the 5 after staring relegation in the face a couple of weeks ago, but you would think Uni would be far too good and put that one to rest this week. Despite Curtin Wesley upsetting them last week, think it will be CBC who grabs the final berth. At the back end it will be a ding dong battle between Kelmscott and Kalamunda to see who can spring an upset over the next three weeks to avoid relegation and will have a couple of the finals aspirants in their sights.

Having lost one of their Colts teams and most of their reserves players, Kelmscott really have a battle on their hands - and not just for this season.

Where to from here?