TOPIC:

gtrxuone wrote: DD the polls have been quiet stable for a few weeks now.But people are saying the LNP+ALP are not leaking there private polling. They think there going to lose marginal seats to each other.
The polls are interesting also Lnp 38-ALP37.5--Greens down -3 to 8%,One Nation down-3 to 5%.That means United Australia could get around 11%.

And that could mean anyone's teenage party would be gatecrashed by Clive Palmer, speaking of messes now.

gtrxuone wrote: DD the polls have been quiet stable for a few weeks now.But people are saying the LNP+ALP are not leaking there private polling. They think there going to lose marginal seats to each other.
The polls are interesting also Lnp 38-ALP37.5--Greens down -3 to 8%,One Nation down-3 to 5%.That means United Australia could get around 11%.

In the unlikely event UAP gets 11% gtr, that means 11% of the voting public in Australia are total morons. The polls I've seen recently suggest it's more like 6-8% but that's bad enough and if so, will have significant impact in Parliament. Mind you, once elected his people tend to jump ship anyway.

BC wrote:

gtrxuone wrote: DD the polls have been quiet stable for a few weeks now.But people are saying the LNP+ALP are not leaking there private polling. They think there going to lose marginal seats to each other.
The polls are interesting also Lnp 38-ALP37.5--Greens down -3 to 8%,One Nation down-3 to 5%.That means United Australia could get around 11%.

In the unlikely event UAP gets 11% gtr, that means 11% of the voting public in Australia are total morons. The polls I've seen recently suggest it's more like 6-8% but that's bad enough and if so, will have significant impact in Parliament. Mind you, once elected his people tend to jump ship anyway.

BC One Nation really struggling in this campaign.And there no love for the Greens,they have no cash.Havnt seen a flyer or add anywhere. Clive getting a few of thoes voters.

Have found the betting markets interesting when looking this morning.
To be sworn in as the federal government, there is currently
Labor on a $1.17
Coalition $4.85
One Nation apparently sitting at $126.00
Greens on $201
United Australia Party with $251

The betting would suggest shorten will be the pm after the election.

Galaxy Thursday night Wa Poll in marginal seats.
Cowan + 2% AlP 52.1 V LNP 47.9
Swan --3.4% LNP 50 V ALP 50
Perace--2.5% LNP 50.9 V ALP 49.1
Hasluck--2.4 LNP 50 V ALP 50
Stirling--5%. LNP 50.5 V ALP 49.5

gtr: good one -- on those figures I think Bill will get over the line in Canberra. The Liberals need to win in Cowan to havy any hope.

Galaxy has conducted it's final poll.A mid afternoon survey on Friday.
First Preference LNP +1=39%...ALP+0=37.5%..Greens -3=8.5%.One Nation-2=6%.Australian Conservative +0=1%.Other -3=2%.Australian United Party +2=6%
Leaves the 2PP at ALP 50.8 V LNP 49.2..ALP 77-LNP 68-Other 6.

That's in line with Ipsos as well GTR....looks like it could be a close run contest and if it tightens even more, the prospect of a minority Labor government isn't out of the question.

BC wrote: That's in line with Ipsos as well GTR....looks like it could be a close run contest and if it tightens even more, the prospect of a minority Labor government isn't out of the question.

I thought it was tight right from the start.Neither party has over 40% .LNP with 42% last time..ATM there about 300,000 votes short.

Some late state polls.Swings against the government in each state
Qld - 1.7 LNP 50 V ALP50
NSW -1.6 LNP 48 V ALP 52
Vic -2.2 LNP 46 V ALP 54
WA - 2.7 LNP 52 V 48.
Sa+Tas nil