TOPIC:

Next weeks round of fixtures in the AFL promise to be very exciting with only one game not involving a team in the top eight or fighting for a place (Western Bulldogs V GWS). The standout match of course will be the shoot out for fourth between the Dockers and Port Adelaide and given the history of teams finishing outside the top four both teams will be desperate to win this one.

There are still 5 teams with a mathematical chance of snatching 8th spot. Gold Coast Suns are almost no chance because they have a very poor percentage. So what would each team be hoping for going into round 23 to qualify?

Richmond Currently 8th - If they beat Sydney at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night they are in, simple as that. If they lose, they will have to hope that Collingwood lose to Hawthorn, St Kilda beat Adelaide and Gold Coast beat West Coast. They have their fate in their own hands but I think they are unlikely to make it unless they can beat the top team.

Collingwood currently 9th- They need to beat Hawthorn on Friday night and hope that Richmond lose to Sydney. If this happens they will be 8th irrespective of the other results. If they lose they are out.

West Coast currently 10th - They need to beat Gold Coast and hope that Richmond and Collingwood both lose and Adelaide don't make up the 4.5 % difference in percentage if they beat St Kilda. They have a big advantage over the others in that they will be playing on sunday after all the other games so they will know when they run out exactly what they have to do, if they in fact still have a chance of making it. I would suggest they would be favourites at this stage.

Adelaide currently 11th - They need to beat St Kilda and ideally they need Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast all to lose. If West Coast win, Adelaide need to beat the Saints by 100+ points and hope for a small winning margin for West Coast so they can make up the 4.5% percentage difference.

Gold Coast currently 12th - barely worth talking about but still mathematically possible so I have included them. They would need to beat West Coast by 70+ points to get their percentage up over the 100 mark and hope that Sydney flog Richmond by 90 - 100 points. They also need Collingwood and Adelaide to lose their games. Yes Buckleys chance ( excuse the pun)

All adds up to an interesting round.

well adelaide might need to beat the saints by 70 or so more points than what the eagles (if they can win) beat the gold coast by.

the great thing for adelaide and west coast is that the sides above them just happen to be playing the top 2 teams.

the pies with all their injury woes struggled to get past GWS - so this part of the equation should fall into place easily.

the tiges brushed the saints aside yesterday - but by 26 points which would suggest beating sydney will be nigh impossible - but you never know.

so with adelaide having to make up so much ground percentage wise the eagles look like they will be playing the dockers in the first week of the finals.

joan trieste wrote: well adelaide might need to beat the saints by 70 or so more points than what the eagles (if they can win) beat the gold coast by.

the great thing for adelaide and west coast is that the sides above them just happen to be playing the top 2 teams.

the pies with all their injury woes struggled to get past GWS - so this part of the equation should fall into place easily.

the tiges brushed the saints aside yesterday - but by 26 points which would suggest beating sydney will be nigh impossible - but you never know.

so with adelaide having to make up so much ground percentage wise the eagles look like they will be playing the dockers in the first week of the finals.

Small problem of Port to knock over the dockers for that to eventuate

anchorman wrote:

joan trieste wrote: well adelaide might need to beat the saints by 70 or so more points than what the eagles (if they can win) beat the gold coast by.

the great thing for adelaide and west coast is that the sides above them just happen to be playing the top 2 teams.

the pies with all their injury woes struggled to get past GWS - so this part of the equation should fall into place easily.

the tiges brushed the saints aside yesterday - but by 26 points which would suggest beating sydney will be nigh impossible - but you never know.

so with adelaide having to make up so much ground percentage wise the eagles look like they will be playing the dockers in the first week of the finals.

So JT you don't see the Dockers beating Port on Saturday!!!!
My tip is Fremantle by around four goals.

well if not the first week what about the second week? - that would be even better.

anchorman wrote: Can't see another Derby happening this year JT,sorry.

well it is not your fault anchorman - it is probably for best anyway, a derby final would just blow too many minds.

mikeh wrote: Next weeks round of fixtures in the AFL promise to be very exciting with only one game not involving a team in the top eight or fighting for a place (Western Bulldogs V GWS). The standout match of course will be the shoot out for fourth between the Dockers and Port Adelaide and given the history of teams finishing outside the top four both teams will be desperate to win this one.

There are still 5 teams with a mathematical chance of snatching 8th spot. Gold Coast Suns are almost no chance because they have a very poor percentage. So what would each team be hoping for going into round 23 to qualify?

Richmond Currently 8th - If they beat Sydney at ANZ Stadium on Saturday night they are in, simple as that. If they lose, they will have to hope that Collingwood lose to Hawthorn, St Kilda beat Adelaide and Gold Coast beat West Coast. They have their fate in their own hands but I think they are unlikely to make it unless they can beat the top team.

Collingwood currently 9th- They need to beat Hawthorn on Friday night and hope that Richmond lose to Sydney. If this happens they will be 8th irrespective of the other results. If they lose they are out.

West Coast currently 10th - They need to beat Gold Coast and hope that Richmond and Collingwood both lose and Adelaide don't make up the 4.5 % difference in percentage if they beat St Kilda. They have a big advantage over the others in that they will be playing on sunday after all the other games so they will know when they run out exactly what they have to do, if they in fact still have a chance of making it. I would suggest they would be favourites at this stage.

Adelaide currently 11th - They need to beat St Kilda and ideally they need Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast all to lose. If West Coast win, Adelaide need to beat the Saints by 100+ points and hope for a small winning margin for West Coast so they can make up the 4.5% percentage difference.

Gold Coast currently 12th - barely worth talking about but still mathematically possible so I have included them. They would need to beat West Coast by 70+ points to get their percentage up over the 100 mark and hope that Sydney flog Richmond by 90 - 100 points. They also need Collingwood and Adelaide to lose their games. Yes Buckleys chance ( excuse the pun)

All adds up to an interesting round.

1

looking forward to a North Melbourne / Essendon elimination final at the Mcg. Not much between these sides at all.

As for the rest I am sure Fremantle will beat Port even without Fyfe & Barlow. They are in sync now. That will likely make a Sydney/Fremantle Qualifying final. Another tight contest.

I think its unlikely Collingwood or Richmond will get up. And the Eagles seemed to ease off against Melbourne when percentage was crucial. I think they will pay the price and Adelaide may get in by annihilating StKilda. In fact the Gold Coast may beat the Eagles anyway so the Crows may just cruise into 8th spot.

That would set up a Port Adelaide/Adelaide elimination final. How great would that be. From memory the Crows rolled Port not long ago, so what a game that will be for the city of churches.

Could be a Sydney Freo GF. Its so hard to tell, been a great season so far.

for those who like flowcharts

Oops wrong picture!

First piece of the jigsaw out of the way for the Eagles, as expected Collingwood dumped out of the race. Now they will be sweating on the result in Sydney tomorrow night. Probably depends on how seriously the Swans take the game. If they are still alive on Sunday West Coast will need to beat Gold Coast by as much as they can because Adelaide will still have 3 quarters of their match against St Kilda to go when the match is over at Metricon and will know exactly how much percentage they have to make up to catch the Eagles. Originally I thought the Adelaide game was on Saturday night but the scheduling of the game gives them a real chance of making up the ground they need. So there is a real chance of either a Western Derby or Showdown elimination final next weekend depending on results. Interesting times ahead.