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Australia's only real hope of getting these runs is an unbeaten ton by Ussie, then the other batsmen namely Head Green and Carey take an aggressive approach and put together some 50+ partnerships.  I think England are big favourites though having got rid of Smith and Marnus.
That 3rd morning where they bowled us out when it looked like we were going to take a lead was crucial. A 50 run lead in these circumstances would have been handy and meant that they would only have been chasing just over 200 which would be a totally different ball game.

Whatever the result it has been a fantastic test and a great way to start what is looking like an epic series.

England's marginal favourites with the bookmakers. 
England $2.02
Australia  $2.20
Birmingham 2005 ,Second Test.
England set us 4 runs more and won by 2 runs.

Australia will fall short due to having a long batting tail (6 out all out) that has offered up little by way of runs for far too long and also how many the Pommy tail were allowed to score in both innings due to some backfoot defensive field placings that allowed the likes of Ali, Robinson, Broad and even Anderson to all contribute double figure scores in both innings (only 2nd innings bat for Anderson)!

Beasley Hutton wrote:

Australia will fall short due to having a long batting tail (6 out all out) that has offered up little by way of runs for far too long and also how many the Pommy tail were allowed to score in both innings due to some backfoot defensive field placings that allowed the likes of Ali, Robinson, Broad and even Anderson to all contribute double figure scores in both innings (only 2nd innings bat for Anderson)!

Boland in now as night watchman and on 13.  Hopefully he can stick around for a bit score a few runs. Frustrate the poms. Maybe send in Lyon next. Looking like some rain but still plenty of overs to score the runs. Why not try something different?

No play till 9pm our time at least. Maximum 60 overs probably. Chances of an Aussie victory have reduced. England need to take 4 wickets to get into our tail.

huge amount of rain overnight very wet outfield - but they'll play until 9pm the light will still be great up there
just a matter of that outfield

When play resumes..Does this come down to Stuart Broads first spell.Probably 5 or 6 overs.

Cant believe what Australia have produced today or should I say haven't produced. A totally submissive batting performance when they had a genuine chance of putting England under pressure.
So many times ball hit straight to fielder with no attempt to work gaps
Ussie dug himself a massive hole and it almost appeared that he was playing for a draw, this put more pressure on his partners and he couldnt see it through.
England have made all the running and it will be a bit of an injustice if they don't win this game. 
Finally now with 7 wickets down Carey is trying to do what should have happened 2 hours ago. Too late methinks.

What a Test match!
And isn't it great to finally win a close one?
Yes, Australia had a bit of luck in that last hour, but Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon were sensational.
Usman Khawaja may've got bogged down in the second innings but without his double of 141 and 65, we wouldn't have got close.
Full credit to England for setting the running throughout the match, but I can't help but think that Ben Stokes' decision to declare their first innings at 8 wickets down, when Joe Root was batting sublimely, will be heavily scrutinised.
Still, Test cricket was the big winner and fortune favoured the brave (Cummins and Lyon) in the finish.

Folk may question his captaincy...folk may question his woke views.....but you can't question Cummins heart and fight for the battle. A win for the ages....redemption at last for that Billy Bowden howler v Kaspa at Edgbaston all those years ago....

Think Aust was due some luck in all honesty AD....Eng batted first in the best batting conditions.....got Aust under some cloud day 2, then the rain saved Eng arses on day 3.....not sure how Aust won that in the end, did everything they could to lose it....

Definitely take that win.....a win for the plodding tortoise apparently, over the crowd pleasing hare....can see the hare will keep persisting with his crowd pleasing antics....though I did giggle with Cummins and Lyon well into their run chase, Eng had a more defensive field then what Aust had on day 1....I thought the end result didn't matter??